Friday 7 June 2013

A cause for optimism? Looking to the 2014 Elections.



Reading over my last post, it occurred to me that people might be wondering why I seemed so optimistic when our party appears to be going down in the percentages in 2012. However, the picture is better than you might think, in wards which are LibDem strongholds - the overall percentages are skewed by the other ward percentages. 

For example:- selectively plotting some Newcastle wards, there is a definite upswing in a number of the wards, mainly those which already had a higher percentage of LibDems. Although Westerhope (blue line) which seems to have a big upwards swing, did elect a former LibDem, the councillor ran as an independent, though many of the electorate will doubtless associate him with his former party. (I should add that in online sources, he's still listed as in the party in election data for 2012.)


Apart from this small sign of green shoots, the elusive 2012 data can be used to predict party behaviour in next year's elections. It's a fair bet that each party will be campaigning hard in seats where their opponents' majorities are small, as well as consolidating their hold in less secure seats. Some seats are so safe that it would seem foolish to waste expensive time/money resources campaigning there (but you never know...) Take Labour in Newcastle:-

Newcastle Labour Party
Ranked Labour Ward
Majority in 2012
Ward Average
Main Opponent
Castle
-1203
23.3
LD
Westerhope
-1155
28.6
LD
Parklands
-966
16.0
LD
Dene
-879
24.5
LD
West Gosforth
-738
17.2
LD
North Jesmond
-455
24.8
LD
Fawdon
-344
33.3
LD
North Heaton
-320
29.9
LD
Ouseburn
-265
33.8
LD
East Gosforth
-249
25.3
LD
South Jesmond
286
27.7
LD
Walkergate
412
43.0
LD/UKIP
Lemington
533
44.7
LD/NFI
Westgate
966
59.6
CON/LD
South Heaton
978
48.5
NFI/LD
Newburn
1055
46.8
NFI/LD
Denton
1232
40.5
NFI/LD
Wingrove
1246
48.8
NFI/LD
Woolsington
1287
52.0
LD
Blakelaw
1333
43.5
LD
Kenton
1359
58.1
LD/CON
Byker
1369
62.5
NFIRST
Fenham
1374
44.6
LD
Elswick
1463
57.1
NFI/CON/LD
Benwell & Scotswood
1515
58.2
IND
Walker
1740
70.4
NFI

I've highlighted the 5 seats the Labour Party most want to win, and the 5 seats with the smallest LibDem majority. Some seats have an interesting 3 way competition, which splits the opposition vote. I've also given the average percentage result for the Labour Party for each ward, based on the 7 elections between 2004-2012. This shows that, for example, though Denton has a big majority now, in the past, 5 out of the 7 elections studied were won by the LibDems, so the percentage is lower. Note the Newcastle independents, Newcastle First. 7/6/2013 Walkergate by-election data added.

North Tyneside Labour Party
Ranked Labour Ward
Majority in 2012
Ward Average
Main Opponent
St Marys
-1998
17.5
CON
Monkseaton North
-547
26.9
CON
Cullercoats
-299
35.9
CON
Nortumberland
-241
31.0
LD
Tynemouth
-72
39.5
CON
Wallsend
6
35.4
LD
Preston
90
40.5
CON
Whitley Bay
116
39.8
CON
Monkseaton South
165
41.0
CON
Battle Hill
673
48.1
CON
Weetslade
830
50.7
CON
Collingwood
832
51.0
CON
Benton
937
46.9
CON
Killingworth
1154
48.9
CON
Chirton
1178
66.2
CON/LD
Valley
1338
66.9
CON/LD
Riverside
1378
61.4
CON/LD
Camperdown
1394
63.1
CON/LD
Howden
1465
60.3
CON/LD
Longbenton
1556
66.4
CON/LD

Not such a big LibDem area, but some winnable wards. You have to feel for the candidate who lost to Labour in 2012 by only 6 votes! I note that Labour has such a high percentage in some wards because the only opposition candidate was Conservative, so for instance in the apparently comfortably Labour ward of Longbenton (this is 2012 data), no LibDem has been an opponent since 2010, when the candidate got 965 votes or 20.7%. Some wards have not run a LibDem candidate since 2004.

Gateshead Labour Party
Ranked Labour Ward
Majority in 2012
Ward Average
Main Opponent
Whickham South & Swanside
-494
24.5
LD
Dunston Hill & Whickham East
-232
40.3
LD
Low Fell
-123
29.7
LD
Whickham North
-94
35.2
LD
Pelaw & Heworth
293
42.7
LD
Ryton Crookhill & Stella
524
37.4
LD
Birtley
678
53.8
LIBERAL
Bridges
936
60.2
LD/CON
Crawcrook & Greenside
1002
45.8
LD
Saltwell
1127
65.7
LD/CON
Deckham
1193
57.3
LD/CON
Dunston & Teams
1271
64.0
LD/CON
High Fell
1284
64.3
LD/CON/TUSC
Lamesley
1355
56.9
LIBERAL/IND
Felling
1365
69.4
LD/CON
Lobley Hill & Bensham
1446
56.0
LD/CON/GRN
Wardley & Leam Lane
1448
62.6
LD/CON/GRN
Winlaton & High Spen
1462
52.6
LD/CON
Blaydon
1515
62.5
LD/CON
Chowdene
1659
60.9
LD/CON
Windy Nook & Whitehills
1735
66.7
LD/CON
Chopwell & Rowlands Gill
1869
62.9
LD/CON

Interesting that two wards have traditionally been old Liberal party in Gateshead, and no LibDem has campaigned against them. How well the voters get the distinction is another matter. I always admire the candidates with tradition and conviction behind them, even if they tread a lonely path. Four good LibDem wards here, and you can bet that our opponents will be gunning for them. But they better watch out in the former LibDem wards of Dunston, Pelaw and Ryton, among others... 

South Tyneside Labour Party
Ranked Labour Ward
Majority in 2012
Ward Average
Main Opponent
Cleadon & East Boldon
-249
33.7
CON
Cleadon Park
21
40.6
IND
Bede
80
51.6
IND
Hebburn North
201
42.4
LD/IND
Beacon & Bents
203
39.9
IND
West Park
291
35.6
PROGRESSIVES
Westoe
374
29.3
IND
Monkton
391
44.9
IND
Fellgate &Hedworth
440
49.0
IND
Horsley Hill
448
44.9
IND
Whiteleas
466
53.2
IND
Harton
754
45.1
PROGRESSIVES
Biddick & All Saints
877
53.1
IND
Boldon Colliery
887
54.3
IND
Primrose
1057
59.0
CON/BNP
Simonside & Rekendyke
1083
57.6
LIBERAL/CON/BNP
Whitburn & Marsden
1142
52.7
CON
Hebburn South
1586
59.1
CON

Although the LibDems have  historically only been strong in Hebburn North, they only lost the ward after the candidate turned independent (Hmmm). It's a big tradition in South Tyneside for independent candidates to run, in an attempt to oust the local Labour Party, which seems to have attracted considerable hostility thereabouts. It's also an area of big personalities, which may not always be a good thing, but makes politics more interesting (See Mr. Monkey!). Anyway, what initially seems a Labour stronghold is peppered with wards with very marginal majorities. You have to feel that if the independents ever got their act together and were less... er... independent, they might be very effective. They seem to be going downhill fast, dropping about 5% to 17.6 from 2011 to 2012 and no longer have the 6 councillors from 2008.

 I'm not depressed by the low results for the LibDems in the South Shields parliamentary election by the way. I recall one particular report which talked about the small but dedicated group of LibDems campaigning on the streets of South Shields against hopeless odds, and I thought what a great example of dedication and fortitude it was. How is that losing?

Sunderland Labour Party
Ranked Labour Ward
Majority in 2012
Ward Average
Main Opponent
St Michaels
28.6
-488
CON
Copt Hill
46.3
-429
IND
Fulwell
31.8
-101
CON
Millfield
37.4
170
LD
Hetton
59.3
265
UKIP
Houghton
52.0
294
IND
Hendon
50.5
360
CON/UKIP
St Peters
38.3
374
CON
St Chads
44.0
434
CON
Barnes
34.5
555
CON
Sandhill
61.7
965
CON/LD
W East
46.7
986
CON
W South
44.9
1045
CON
Pallion
53.8
1176
CON/GRN
Ryhope
54.1
1181
CON
Southwick
55.1
1188
CON/UKIP
Doxford
49.4
1273
CON
St Annes
58.9
1404
CON
W Central
53.2
1463
UKIP/CON
Silksworth
58.3
1509
CON/UKIP
Shiney Row
57.3
1651
CON
W North
64.0
1698
CON
Redhill
65.6
1762
CON
Castle
65.9
1763
CON/LD
W West
57.8
1814
CON/LD

Oh Sunderland. You'll break my heart. Such high percentages for that lot! And my own ward one of the worst, since it elects the head of the Conservatives, who isn't a bad councillor, but not my party. Actually, Sunderland has 8 elected Conservatives and 2 independents, out of 75 councillors at present. After the sad death of the excellent  independent Houghton councillor who campaigned for many years against the council's landfill site on her doorstep, a by-election elected a Labour candidate. 2013 figures are quoted above as being current. I note the slow but inexorable rise of UKIP in areas of Sunderland, notably Hetton, their apparent stronghold, and home of their candidate who ran in the South Shields by-election.

I further note that the Sunderland council website is looking a bit sparse - only the election results from 2011  and 2012 are displayed, and a little graph with no majority given. In fact, unless you dig a little, you'd never know there were LibDem councillors in Sunderland at all and it was only a couple of years ago that we were ousted. Do a search for Liberal Democrats and nothing relevant appears. Selective amnesia on the website? There's truth in the old saying that history is written by the winners. A topic for another day perhaps.