My latest blog - Running the numbers

I've been looking at Tyne and Wear as a whole, wondering where the LibDem hotspots are, and it's quite a pleasing picture in most areas. We're talking about the Newcastle, North and South Tyneside, Sunderland and Gateshead areas. So let's see the data. I'll go with my favourite statistic, % vote in the constituency since 2004. 

 

Sunderland Local Elections 2004-12
	2004	2006	2007	2008	2010	2011	2012
LibDem	8	15.7	8.7	11.6	18.3	5.1	5.5
Labour	55.4	40.5	43.3	39.6	49	60.3	62.1
Conservatives	28.9	28.4	28.1	32	25.5	25.7	20.4
BNP	6.6	14.6	10.6	10.2	3.3		0
UKIP			0.1	0.1		2	4.9
Respect			0.3
Green					0.3	2.4	4.7
Independent	0.9	0.7	8.3	6.4	4	4.6	2.4
Liberal	0.2
Monster RL		0.1
British First			0.5
Left Party			0.1

 As you may know, Sunderland is a Labour/Conservative council. Some BNP activity, unfortunately.

Newcastle Local Election Results 2004-12
	2004	2006	2007	2008	2010	2011	2012
LibDem	41.7	47.8	46.3	45.8	38.2	31.1	28.1
Labour	33.3	35.5	33.7	31.8	38.9	51	49.9
Conservative	15	9.5	12.3	13.5	14.5	11.4	7.8
BNP	2.7	2.7	4.5	5.6	5.6	2.4	0.3
Independent	3.8		0.3	1	0.3		3.3
Green	1.3	3.2	2.6	1.5	2.2	2.2	2.5
Newcastle First						0.0	7.8
UKIP				0.2	0.3
NF	1.2				0.1
Socialist	0.7	0.4
English Democrats	0.3	0.5
Respect		0.3	0.2
Free England				0.5
Communist	0.1						0.1
TUSC							0.1

Great to see the LibDems giving Labour a fight for their money in Newcastle. Conservatives are nowhere. Some interesting smaller parties like Newcastle First, which in at least one ward, divided the LibDem vote so that Labour got in. If the statistic was less than 0.1% I left it off. Weird that the data isn't available on Wikipedia or the council website. Someone trying to hide their percentages?  After the post 2010 slump, it appears the LibDems are starting to recover a little. I can understand how that might be unpalatable for some, but the sheer unavailability of 2012 percentages across the area is remarkable in its coverage. Never fear, I've collected the numbers for your convenience.

North Tyneside Local Election results 2004-12
	2004	2006	2007	2008	2010	2011	2012
LibDem	24.5	15.7	17	15.7	15.1	9.7	7.5
Labour	35.5	38.5	39.9	37.8	49.1	54.2	56.9
Conservative	34.9	40.7	39.2	43.6	32.5	34.3	35.1
BNP	1.7	1.3	1.2	2.1	1.2	0.1
Independent		3.8	1			0.3
Green			0.2	0.3	1.3	0.5
NF	0.5		1	0.5	0.6	0.8	0.4
UKIP			0.3
New Nation.			0.1
English Democrats					0.2

A two way fight here between Labour and the Conservatives, but with a couple of strong LibDem wards to add spice to the mix.

South Tyneside Local Elections 2004-12
	2004	2006	2007	2008	2010	2011	2012
Labour	36.5	40.5	41.5	37.4	48.7	53.7	59.4
Conservative	15.9	13.8	13.1	15.9	14.4	14.2	12.2
Lib Dem	18.5	11.6	6.4	5	7.2	2.5	0
BNP	1.8	1.2	4.4	9.2	8.5	2.3	4.9
Independent	17.6	25.9	26.8	25.2	15.6	21.9	17.6
Progressive	8.5	6	5.4	5.8	4.3	3.3	3.7
Green	0.6	0.6	1.8	1.4	1.4	1.2	0.5
Liberal						0.9	1.6

A very strong Labour council on first glance, with one Conservative ward, but appearances can be deceptive. Things are rotten in the state of Denmark, if you'll allow me a bad metaphor. Check out those Independent figures!

Gateshead Local Elections 2004-12
	2004	2006	2007	2008	2010	2011	2012
LibDem	32.7	37.5	35.6	34.5	30.3	21.2	21.1
Labour	45	44.6	46	42.1	50	63.5	66.1
Conservative	10.3	9.6	9.1	12.8	12.2	11.3	8
BNP	7.7	3.7	5	5.8	4.3
Independent	0.9	1.7	1.5	1.8	0.6	0.9	0.6
Liberal	3.5	2.8	2.6	3	2.4	1.3	1.9
Green					0.1	1.2	1.3
UKIP		0.3	0.4
TUSC						0.6	0.7
NF							0.25

A couple of LibDem hotspots in Gateshead make this an interesting council, despite the Labour strength. No Conservative presence to speak of, though I'll always praise the dedication of campaigners where there's no chance, whatever their party.

2013 seems to be the year of no elections in our area, except the odd byelection. Next year is the one to look forward to, with all councils in Tyne and Wear gearing up for a fight. More next time on which wards Labour are gunning for, which are hopeless from their perspective, and which wards are not as safe as you might think... Let's try to predict that battle plan. And yes, the data will be from every council in Tyne and Wear.

Do Sunderland businesses claim what they're entitled to?

I was wondering  how helpful Sunderland Council/Labour have been to small businesses in the local area, and I decided to put in a Freedom of Information request to see what the uptake of the government's Small Business Tax Relief scheme. The council isn't allowed to say who is claiming this, but strangely enough, they are allowed to say who isn't! Bureaucrats! Anyway, the results were very interesting. I asked:-

Q. The number of small businesses with a rateable value below £12,000 in the Sunderland area, which is the current threshold for Small Business Rate Relief.

A. There are 2792 properties in Sunderland with a rateable value below £12,000.

Q. The number (and percentage) of these businesses who are eligible for but not claiming Small Business Rate Relief.

A. 2075 (74.32%) of those properties referred to in (a) are not currently claiming Small Business Rate Relief.

Q.  How does the council inform businesses whether they are eligible for this, if indeed they do so?

A.  We actively promote Small Business Rates Relief, information is included with bills and is explained fully on the council’s website. We also send out application forms and inform businesses during all contact with them that they could be eligible.

 

So in other words, three quarters of all businesses are entitled to claim money back from the council, but don't! Outrageous! You'd expect our esteemed councillors to shout about this to the rooftops, wouldn't you. It would make them look good. But then, it would also impact on the amount of money that the council claws into its' coffers. It's a simple enough choice. Give businesses money to help them, or keep it for things like  those high salaries. It was in the news last week that the chief executive and 11 of his executives were paid £1,662,768 last year! £229,547 of that was for the chief executive himself!

You can see the full list at:-

https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/small_business_rate_relief_25

Some interesting things emerged. As well as the many business addresses listed, there were several other types of business facility on the FOI list, which must obviously be eligible for making claims. Some examples are:-

(i) Advertising hoardings - I suppose there's a rental cost for these which is claimable.

(ii­­) Telecommunications masts and receivers - I know these pay land rent. Obviously another tax loophole.

(iii) Rented office facilities

(iv) Car parks. Quite puzzling that the council list has its own carparks on, e.g. Raby Road Carpark, Washington (item 1726). Also a few schools, and recreation grounds. Is the council saying it can claim back tax on its own property so it doesn't have to pay itself? One of those internal markets or limited companies? Or did they just copy and paste the info from another document?

(v) There are a number of charities, sporting and volunteer organisations on the list. Is the council saying these are liable for tax relief, but it's not telling them? Very charitable. 

All I can say is, it raises a lot of questions (and hackles) even in somebody like me with a very basic knowledge of tax. It really needs the research skills/advice of a tax expert or accountant.

Did my predictions work?

So were my first ever election predictions any good? Well not much! It's more of an art than  a science, and something I need to work on. Still, it's fun.

Party	Prediction	Reality	+/-
Labour	47	50.4	3.4
Conservative	12	11.5	-0.5
LibDem	7.8	1.4	-6.4
BNP	6.5	2.9	-3.6
UKIP	17.8	24.2	6.4
Independents	3.6	9.4	5.8

Anyway, I was closest with the Conservative result, not bad with Labour and not good (!) with the rest. Possibly some of those annoying incumbency factors - such as the fact that local candidates were preferred on the ground; independent locals did better than expected, and local support on the ground was crucial. I happen to know that the LibDem team was very small, and couldn't build up support in such a short time despite heroic efforts (noticed by the media!).

As for the result, I'm glad that a woman, (who had a proper job for once) got in, but I wish it was us.