So were my
first ever election predictions any good? Well not much! It's more of an art
than a science, and something I need to
work on. Still, it's fun.
|
Party
|
Prediction
|
Reality
|
+/-
|
|
Labour
|
47
|
50.4
|
3.4
|
|
Conservative
|
12
|
11.5
|
-0.5
|
|
LibDem
|
7.8
|
1.4
|
-6.4
|
|
BNP
|
6.5
|
2.9
|
-3.6
|
|
UKIP
|
17.8
|
24.2
|
6.4
|
|
Independents
|
3.6
|
9.4
|
5.8
|
Anyway, I
was closest with the Conservative result, not bad with Labour and not good (!)
with the rest. Possibly some of those annoying incumbency factors - such as the
fact that local candidates were preferred on the ground; independent locals did
better than expected, and local support on the ground was crucial. I happen to
know that the LibDem team was very small, and couldn't build up support in such
a short time despite heroic efforts (noticed by the media!).
As for the
result, I'm glad that a woman, (who had a proper job for once) got in, but I
wish it was us.
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