A cause for optimism? Looking to the 2014 Elections.

Reading over my last post, it occurred to me that people might be wondering why I seemed so optimistic when our party appears to be going down in the percentages in 2012. However, the picture is better than you might think, in wards which are LibDem strongholds - the overall percentages are skewed by the other ward percentages. 

For example:- selectively plotting some Newcastle wards, there is a definite upswing in a number of the wards, mainly those which already had a higher percentage of LibDems. Although Westerhope (blue line) which seems to have a big upwards swing, did elect a former LibDem, the councillor ran as an independent, though many of the electorate will doubtless associate him with his former party. (I should add that in online sources, he's still listed as in the party in election data for 2012.)

Apart from this small sign of green shoots, the elusive 2012 data can be used to predict party behaviour in next year's elections. It's a fair bet that each party will be campaigning hard in seats where their opponents' majorities are small, as well as consolidating their hold in less secure seats. Some seats are so safe that it would seem foolish to waste expensive time/money resources campaigning there (but you never know...) Take Labour in Newcastle:-

Newcastle Labour Party
Ranked Labour Ward	Majority in 2012	Ward Average	Main Opponent
Castle	-1203	23.3	LD
Westerhope	-1155	28.6	LD
Parklands	-966	16.0	LD
Dene	-879	24.5	LD
West Gosforth	-738	17.2	LD
North Jesmond	-455	24.8	LD
Fawdon	-344	33.3	LD
North Heaton	-320	29.9	LD
Ouseburn	-265	33.8	LD
East Gosforth	-249	25.3	LD
South Jesmond	286	27.7	LD
Walkergate	412	43.0	LD/UKIP
Lemington	533	44.7	LD/NFI
Westgate	966	59.6	CON/LD
South Heaton	978	48.5	NFI/LD
Newburn	1055	46.8	NFI/LD
Denton	1232	40.5	NFI/LD
Wingrove	1246	48.8	NFI/LD
Woolsington	1287	52.0	LD
Blakelaw	1333	43.5	LD
Kenton	1359	58.1	LD/CON
Byker	1369	62.5	NFIRST
Fenham	1374	44.6	LD
Elswick	1463	57.1	NFI/CON/LD
Benwell & Scotswood	1515	58.2	IND
Walker	1740	70.4	NFI

I've highlighted the 5 seats the Labour Party most want to win, and the 5 seats with the smallest LibDem majority. Some seats have an interesting 3 way competition, which splits the opposition vote. I've also given the average percentage result for the Labour Party for each ward, based on the 7 elections between 2004-2012. This shows that, for example, though Denton has a big majority now, in the past, 5 out of the 7 elections studied were won by the LibDems, so the percentage is lower. Note the Newcastle independents, Newcastle First. 7/6/2013 Walkergate by-election data added.

North Tyneside Labour Party
Ranked Labour Ward	Majority in 2012	Ward Average	Main Opponent
St Marys	-1998	17.5	CON
Monkseaton North	-547	26.9	CON
Cullercoats	-299	35.9	CON
Nortumberland	-241	31.0	LD
Tynemouth	-72	39.5	CON
Wallsend	6	35.4	LD
Preston	90	40.5	CON
Whitley Bay	116	39.8	CON
Monkseaton South	165	41.0	CON
Battle Hill	673	48.1	CON
Weetslade	830	50.7	CON
Collingwood	832	51.0	CON
Benton	937	46.9	CON
Killingworth	1154	48.9	CON
Chirton	1178	66.2	CON/LD
Valley	1338	66.9	CON/LD
Riverside	1378	61.4	CON/LD
Camperdown	1394	63.1	CON/LD
Howden	1465	60.3	CON/LD
Longbenton	1556	66.4	CON/LD

Not such a big LibDem area, but some winnable wards. You have to feel for the candidate who lost to Labour in 2012 by only 6 votes! I note that Labour has such a high percentage in some wards because the only opposition candidate was Conservative, so for instance in the apparently comfortably Labour ward of Longbenton (this is 2012 data), no LibDem has been an opponent since 2010, when the candidate got 965 votes or 20.7%. Some wards have not run a LibDem candidate since 2004.

Gateshead Labour Party
Ranked Labour Ward	Majority in 2012	Ward Average	Main Opponent
Whickham South & Swanside	-494	24.5	LD
Dunston Hill & Whickham East	-232	40.3	LD
Low Fell	-123	29.7	LD
Whickham North	-94	35.2	LD
Pelaw & Heworth	293	42.7	LD
Ryton Crookhill & Stella	524	37.4	LD
Birtley	678	53.8	LIBERAL
Bridges	936	60.2	LD/CON
Crawcrook & Greenside	1002	45.8	LD
Saltwell	1127	65.7	LD/CON
Deckham	1193	57.3	LD/CON
Dunston & Teams	1271	64.0	LD/CON
High Fell	1284	64.3	LD/CON/TUSC
Lamesley	1355	56.9	LIBERAL/IND
Felling	1365	69.4	LD/CON
Lobley Hill & Bensham	1446	56.0	LD/CON/GRN
Wardley & Leam Lane	1448	62.6	LD/CON/GRN
Winlaton & High Spen	1462	52.6	LD/CON
Blaydon	1515	62.5	LD/CON
Chowdene	1659	60.9	LD/CON
Windy Nook & Whitehills	1735	66.7	LD/CON
Chopwell & Rowlands Gill	1869	62.9	LD/CON

Interesting that two wards have traditionally been old Liberal party in Gateshead, and no LibDem has campaigned against them. How well the voters get the distinction is another matter. I always admire the candidates with tradition and conviction behind them, even if they tread a lonely path. Four good LibDem wards here, and you can bet that our opponents will be gunning for them. But they better watch out in the former LibDem wards of Dunston, Pelaw and Ryton, among others... 

South Tyneside Labour Party
Ranked Labour Ward	Majority in 2012	Ward Average	Main Opponent
Cleadon & East Boldon	-249	33.7	CON
Cleadon Park	21	40.6	IND
Bede	80	51.6	IND
Hebburn North	201	42.4	LD/IND
Beacon & Bents	203	39.9	IND
West Park	291	35.6	PROGRESSIVES
Westoe	374	29.3	IND
Monkton	391	44.9	IND
Fellgate &Hedworth	440	49.0	IND
Horsley Hill	448	44.9	IND
Whiteleas	466	53.2	IND
Harton	754	45.1	PROGRESSIVES
Biddick & All Saints	877	53.1	IND
Boldon Colliery	887	54.3	IND
Primrose	1057	59.0	CON/BNP
Simonside & Rekendyke	1083	57.6	LIBERAL/CON/BNP
Whitburn & Marsden	1142	52.7	CON
Hebburn South	1586	59.1	CON

Although the LibDems have  historically only been strong in Hebburn North, they only lost the ward after the candidate turned independent (Hmmm). It's a big tradition in South Tyneside for independent candidates to run, in an attempt to oust the local Labour Party, which seems to have attracted considerable hostility thereabouts. It's also an area of big personalities, which may not always be a good thing, but makes politics more interesting (See Mr. Monkey!). Anyway, what initially seems a Labour stronghold is peppered with wards with very marginal majorities. You have to feel that if the independents ever got their act together and were less... er... independent, they might be very effective. They seem to be going downhill fast, dropping about 5% to 17.6 from 2011 to 2012 and no longer have the 6 councillors from 2008.

 I'm not depressed by the low results for the LibDems in the South Shields parliamentary election by the way. I recall one particular report which talked about the small but dedicated group of LibDems campaigning on the streets of South Shields against hopeless odds, and I thought what a great example of dedication and fortitude it was. How is that losing?

Sunderland Labour Party
Ranked Labour Ward	Majority in 2012	Ward Average	Main Opponent
St Michaels	28.6	-488	CON
Copt Hill	46.3	-429	IND
Fulwell	31.8	-101	CON
Millfield	37.4	170	LD
Hetton	59.3	265	UKIP
Houghton	52.0	294	IND
Hendon	50.5	360	CON/UKIP
St Peters	38.3	374	CON
St Chads	44.0	434	CON
Barnes	34.5	555	CON
Sandhill	61.7	965	CON/LD
W East	46.7	986	CON
W South	44.9	1045	CON
Pallion	53.8	1176	CON/GRN
Ryhope	54.1	1181	CON
Southwick	55.1	1188	CON/UKIP
Doxford	49.4	1273	CON
St Annes	58.9	1404	CON
W Central	53.2	1463	UKIP/CON
Silksworth	58.3	1509	CON/UKIP
Shiney Row	57.3	1651	CON
W North	64.0	1698	CON
Redhill	65.6	1762	CON
Castle	65.9	1763	CON/LD
W West	57.8	1814	CON/LD

Oh Sunderland. You'll break my heart. Such high percentages for that lot! And my own ward one of the worst, since it elects the head of the Conservatives, who isn't a bad councillor, but not my party. Actually, Sunderland has 8 elected Conservatives and 2 independents, out of 75 councillors at present. After the sad death of the excellent  independent Houghton councillor who campaigned for many years against the council's landfill site on her doorstep, a by-election elected a Labour candidate. 2013 figures are quoted above as being current. I note the slow but inexorable rise of UKIP in areas of Sunderland, notably Hetton, their apparent stronghold, and home of their candidate who ran in the South Shields by-election.

I further note that the Sunderland council website is looking a bit sparse - only the election results from 2011  and 2012 are displayed, and a little graph with no majority given. In fact, unless you dig a little, you'd never know there were LibDem councillors in Sunderland at all and it was only a couple of years ago that we were ousted. Do a search for Liberal Democrats and nothing relevant appears. Selective amnesia on the website? There's truth in the old saying that history is written by the winners. A topic for another day perhaps.